Manufacturing PMI® at 49 1%; January 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

In the US, returns for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones were up by 8.92% (–2.20% in October) and 8.77% (–1.36% in October), respectively. In India, the Nifty had risen by 5.7% and the Sensex by 5.5% as of December 12. ISM® identified an issue that affected our 2024 projected seasonal factors. The EUR/USD pushed higher in the first half of Wednesday’s session, boosted by positive signals from the equity markets, as the US dollar eased back against most major currencies. US 10-year bonds have reached the highest levels since 2007
PMIs for the US economy continue to show a negative trend
Meanwhile, a bearish session for the Nasdaq 100 indicates a high risk of further… On the other hand, if the PMI Flash value falls short of expectations, it can result in a drop in the value of the US dollar as investors adjust to the negative economic outlook.

The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates. The above images represent the EUR/JPY currency pair, where we see that the price is continuously moving higher with minimum retracements before the news announcement. From a ‘trade’ point of view, a similar approach will be followed here as well as we had in the previous currency pair, where we will be looking to buy the currency pair only a price retracement. Other national PMI surveys are released by the ISM (United States), DIFL (Denmark), IVEY (Canada) and SIPP (Singapore) which are not complied by S&P Global and therefore not used in the broader aggregates. Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Equity markets continued to grow in December, with the exception of China and Russia.

  1. The supplier also wants to know how much inventory its customers have on hand, which also affects the amount of production its clients must generate.
  2. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).
  3. The services PMI™ was introduced in 1996 by S&P Global’s economists (known as NTC Research at the time) to accompany the existing manufacturing PMI.
  4. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). Imports†ISM®’s Imports Index registered 50.1 percent in January, an increase of 3.7 percentage points compared to December’s figure of 46.4 percent.


Paying attention to the value and movements in the PMI can yield profitable foresight into developing trends in the overall economy. After the news announcement, volatility expands to the upside, and the market moves higher. As the PMI data was extremely positive for the economy, traders bought the currency and took the price higher. The PMI data had a positive impact on the currency pair, and the market makes new ‘high.’ One has to be cautious here by not jumping into the market for a ‘buy’ as it is against risk management rules. When it comes to predicting the GDP growth, a reading above 42 is considered a benchmark for economic expansion.

However, Brazil cut its interest rate to 11.75% in December, down from November’s 12.25% (Exhibit 2). Growth in retail sales across most surveyed countries has remained relatively stable; however, Russia and China stand out as rebounding. US retail and food service sales decreased to $705 billion, a 0.1% decline from October’s revised $705.7 billion.

The services PMI™ was introduced in 1996 by S&P Global’s economists (known as NTC Research at the time) to accompany the existing manufacturing PMI. With the service sector accounting for a larger proportion of GDP than manufacturing for most developed economies, the services PMI was born out of ig broker review a need for analysts (and in particular central bank policymakers) to better understand changing business conditions in the wider economy. The services PMI has fewer questions than the manufacturing PMI due to some questions, such as inventories, not being relevant to many service providers.

PMI® Commentary and Analysis

Manufacturing maintained high growth (up 9.5% year over year), while the output of extractive industries was unchanged from 12 months earlier. Retail sales have gone from a series of monthly declines to grow 0.7% month over month, supported by growth in nominal wages and consumer lending. However, inflation increased to 7.5% year over year in November, broadly due to an extremely tight labor market that is reflected in high wage rises in many sectors. In nominal terms, the average wage data provided by the government indicates a rise of 13.6% year over year in September and by 7.2% in real terms. The main contributor to the eurozone’s third-quarter contraction (–0.1% quarter over quarter) was a change in inventories by companies hedging strategies to weather the expected slowdown. Private consumption, however, made a positive contribution, the highest in 2023.

The ISM PMI declined for 16 out of 18 months in 2008, but there were a couple of months above 50 over that span which included the Financial Crisis. On the one hand, economic growth seems sufficiently strong to allow the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of… Our products and commentary provides general advice that do not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Investing in different asset classes, such as equities, commodities, and forex, can also provide diversification benefits. This strategy can help to offset losses in one market with gains in another, thereby reducing the overall risk.

Q4 Global Economies in Flux: Drive Decisions with the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®)

Remember, interpreting the US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash not only involves understanding what high and low readings indicate but also integrating this data with the broader economic landscape. However, it’s crucial to compare these figures with other economic indicators like the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash and US S&P Global Services PMI Flash to derive comprehensive market insights. Questionnaires are completed in the second half of each month, and survey results are then processed by our economists. For each variable, panel members are asked to report an increase, decrease or no change compared with the previous month, and to provide reasons for any changes. If the index reading is higher than 50, then it indicates an economic expansion. This means that the closer the reading is to 100, the higher the degree of positive economic growth.

How to Trade US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash

New Export Orders†ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 45.2 percent in January, 4.7 percentage points lower than the December reading of 49.9 percent. Monitor Market dynamics, Economies & Risk across financial assets, countries &
business sectors affecting your business or investments. Staying updated with these events can help traders understand market movements and anticipate potential changes.

A high PMI Flash primarily suggests a robust economic activity in the manufacturing and service sectors. This economic growth often leads to increased business confidence, investment, and hiring, all of which can boost the overall economy. The PMI survey of each country consists of a questionnaire for the manufacturing or service sector, which collects the responses from the panel of senior purchasing executives at over 400 companies. The number above 50 represents an expansion compared to the previous reading. A PMI reading below 50 represents a contraction, and a reading at 50 indicates no change. Manufacturing PMI surveys are released on the first working day of each month, followed by services on the third working day.

Industry Products

However, short-term trading based on economic indicators like the PMI Flash can be risky due to the inherent volatility of the markets around the release of such data. Therefore, it’s crucial for traders to have a risk management strategy in place and stay updated with other economic events that could impact their trades. Monthly data derived from surveys of senior executives in the private sector. The PMI features a headline number, indicating the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment, and inventories. ISM, SIPMM, and S&P separately compile purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys on a monthly basis by polling businesses which represent the makeup of the respective business sector. SIPMM survey covers all manufacturing sectors.[9][10][11] The S&P survey covers private sector companies, but not the public sector.

It adds to the trader’s arsenal of economic indicators, such as US Existing Home Sales and New Zealand Retail Sales, which all contribute to a holistic understanding of the global economic landscape. For each variable, the index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘no change’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted using an in-house method developed by S&P Global. The full version of the report includes individual subindexes, which characterize inflation, employment and other key indicators of economic activity. Separate subindexes are calculated for different sectors (NAICS classification is used).

more insights